Very few policy makers
in India dare to acknowledge the danger to the nation’s territorial integrity.
The security and integrity of the nation has become hostage to vote-bank
politics. Democracy and more than eight percent economic growth will be of no avail
if the country as such withers away. India is not only being frayed at its
borders by insurgencies, but its very writ in the heartland is becoming
increasingly questionable. The rise of a nation is predicated upon unity, peace
and stability, which are essentially determined by good governance.
The prevailing security
scenario poses the serious question — Is India’s development and economic
growth becoming unsustainable due to poor handling of the security? There are
three dangers to the territorial integrity that bedevil the nation.
Danger-1
New Delhi and the state
capitals have almost ceded the governmental control over 40 percent of the
Union’s territory to the Naxalites. The Naxals’ are aided and abetted by the
crime mafia that runs its operations in the same corridor from Nepal to Andhra
Pradesh, as well as Maoists of Nepal who in turn receive covert support from
other powers engaged/ interested in destabilizing India. The nexus between ULFA
and Maoists in Nepal is well established. In a recent attack in Chhattisgarh,
Maoists of India and Nepal were co-participants. There are also reports to
suggest that Indian Maoists are increasingly taking to opium cultivation in
areas under their control to finance their activities. The Maoists – crime –
drug nexus is rather explosive.
Danger-2
The security forces,
primarily the Indian Army, have held the state of Jammu and Kashmir physically
since Independence. The politicians and the bureaucrats have contributed
nothing to resolve the situation. The danger has since magnified many times as
displayed by the presence of thousands of supporters of LET flying their flags
in a recent rally of dissidents. Under the garb of peace overtures, heavily
armed infiltrators with tacit support from the Pak Military-Intelligence
establishment continue to make inroads into Kashmir. They are at present lying
low, waiting for an opportune moment for vicious strikes on several fronts to
undermine the Indian Union.
This ghost force reared
its head in a recent rally organized by Geelani. Musharraf and his sympathizers
in India are working in a highly synchronized fashion for demilitarization of
the Valley. Simultaneously, there is an insidious campaign to malign the Indian
Army on one pretext or the other as part of the psywar being waged by the ghost
force under Islamabad’s directions.
After all the wars,
export of terrorism, inconsistent and weak policies by New Delhi, Islamabad
could not win Kashmir only because the Indian Army held its ground. If the
ghost force succeeds in making locals rise against the Army, it will be an unprecedented
achievement for Islamabad. The talk of demilitarization and the campaign to
repeal Armed Forces Special Powers Act, are therefore merely ploys that aim to
achieve the Kashmir objective even as Pak Military-Intelligence establishment
expands its tentacles not only within the Valley but in other parts of India as
well.
While the Pak
dispensation talks of peace, terrorist cells are proliferating in the country
including new frontiers in southern part of India. Islamic fundamentalism /
terrorism footprints, as evidenced by Bangalore centered incidents, are too
glaring to be ignored. Islamic terrorism in the garb of freedom fighting in
Kashmir is therefore de-stabilizing the entire country. Islamabad is
determined to use Kashmir as a gateway/ launching pad to rest of India.
Danger-3
Given a modicum of
political will, Danger-I and II may still be manageable, however, Danger III to
its territorial integrity in the Northeast may prove to be the most difficult.
In fact the entire Northeast can easily be unhooked on multiple counts from the
Union. First, these are low populated areas having contiguity with the most
densely populated and demographically aggressive country in the world, i.e.,
Bangladesh. The country has also emerged as a major source of Islamic
fundamentalism which impacts grievously on the Northeast. To add to these woes,
New Delhi because of sheer vote-bank politics legitimized illegal migration for
22 years through the vehicle of IMDT. Many border districts now have a majority
population constituting illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. In near future,
this leverage will be used to create an internal upheaval against the Centre as
in the case of the Valley. It’s a classic Islamic fundamentalist principle of
asymmetric warfare. What cannot be achieved by conventional wars, can be done
through infiltration and subsequently internal subversion. They call it
“jehad!”
Second, the Northeast if
not addressed appropriately could unhook from the Union before the Valley given
the acute vulnerability of the Siliguri Corridor, which is merely 10 to 20
kilometer wide and 200 kilometers long. If this critical corridor is choked or
subverted or severed by force, the Union of India will have to maintain the
Northeast by air. With poor quality of governance for which the country is
infamous, the local population may gravitate towards other regional powers.
Third, with China’s
claim over Arunachal Pradesh becoming more strident, as evidenced by its recent
stance on Tawang, the danger to the Siliguri Corridor stands enhanced. This
corridor has been facing internal turmoil for many years. The area may well be
further subverted by inimical regional powers. Chinese intention to bargain for
Tawang to secure Tibet is deceptive. Subsequently, it would covet entire
Arunachal Pradesh to protect Tawang. Chinese are known for expanding their
areas of strategic interests with time unlike the Indians who are in a tearing
hurry to convert Siachen Glacier into a “mountain of peace” or LOC into “line
of peace” or equating Pakistan as an equal victim of terrorism.
It is a matter of grave
concern that New Delhi is so prone to issue statements without thinking it
through, as long as it appeases the adversary even temporarily. Therefore the
Northeast – with the internal turmoil in the Siliguri Corridor, with low
population surrounded by overpopulated Bangladesh exporting Islamic terrorism
under tutelage of Islamabad, with China gaining influence in Nepal and
Bangladesh and its upping the ante on Tawang – the danger to the region is
grave. Manipur is a stark indicator. The insurgents have nearly weaned the
state from the Indian Union. The writ of the Indian Union has ceased to
operate; insurgents, compelling people to turn to South Korean music and films,
ban Hindi music and films.
New Delhi continues to
fiddle while the Northeast burns which in turn poses a grave problem to the territorial
integrity of the Union of India. The world once again is getting polarized into
two camps after the end of the Cold War – democracies and authoritarian regimes
of all hues, which includes Islamists, Communists, and the Maoists. Their
perspectives are totally totalitarian. Therefore with China, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Nepal (Maoists), being neighbours, the danger to the
Indian territorial integrity stands enhanced.
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