Indian political
establishment, duly advised by Babus who staff the Ministry of Defence on the
pretext of civilian control over military, with both of them having no
knowledge of matters military, are once again keeping their head buried in
sand, ostrich like, allowing Pakistan and its all weather friend China to join
hands, preparing to spring a military surprise on us. If we do not wake up in
time it will have very dangerous consequences for the country.
Starting January this year
Pakistan suddenly upped the ante against India in Kashmir when one of their BAT
team composed of Pakistani Army’s Special Forces and jehadis of the terror
organisation Lashkar-e -Toiba beheaded two Indian soldiers. Since then they
have been regularly violating cease fire along LOC in J&K State with
impunity. Last month another BAT team sneaked into Indian Territory in Punj
sector in Kashmir and killed five Indian soldiers. Now when Indian Army has
started retaliating in kind, killing one Pakistani Army officer and five
soldiers till date, Pakistan is hollering and protesting with their Parliament
recently passing an anti India resolution. Pakistan sponsored jehadis have also
become very active in the valley since January this year. There was a fidayeen
type of attack on CRPF camp near Srinagar killing five CRPF personnel in March
this year followed by ambush of an army convoy again near Srinagar killing
eight soldiers.
While all this was taking
place on the western front Chinese soldiers in the month of April marched 19 kms deep in Indian Territory in ladakh sect and
pitched tents there. It took three weeks of talks and persuasion by Indian
emissaries before Chinese went back but not before ensuring that the hutments
made by India in strategically important Chumar sector, which overlooks Chinese
movements on Karakoram Highway linking China to Pakistan, were dismantled.
There after they repeated the same thing in Arunachal Pradesh. In the last few
years Indo-China border, which was lying dormant for so long has been activated
by China. They have carried out more than six hundred incursions in the Indian
Territory.
On the issue of military
strategy and foreign policy the Chinese have a speciality that while their top
leaders change after every ten years or so, its foreign policy and military
thinking does not change. At best it may undergo cosmetic updating in keeping
with the changing time. In late eighties When China gave nuclear bomb making
technology to Pakistan, China had fully realised that Pakistan is a parasite country
with just one central thought of achieving military parity with India and
being anti India at all times at any
cost. China gave this bomb to Pakistan to gradually wean it away from the US
camp within which Pakistan was fully ensconced since its independence in 1947.At that time only China had made up its mind that
India can never be its friend and that China can not dominate Asia on a
futuristic perspective till India is cut to size.
China counted on Pakistan to
keep Indo-Pak border active and keep India embroiled in South Asia only,
thereby not allowing India to fully achieve its military and economic
potential. Pakistan readily accepted this role. Our political masters fell in
this trap lock stock and barrel. We fought three wars with Pakistan meanwhile
China kept its 4500 km long border with India absolutely peaceful and tranquil. China did
not even come to the aid of Pakistan in both 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pak Wars because it had its own long term plan
in motion. Indian leaders were so pleased that they use to praise china in
world forums that despite the Indo-China border being disputed, China is so
peace loving that this border remains tranquil and Indo-China trade is
flourishing. It never occurred to our leaders that If China is all that peace
loving then how come it had settled its border disputes with smaller countries
like Myanmar and major powers like Russia but
not India? This resulted in we neglecting our Eastern border with China
and shaped our armed forces Pakistan specific.
China annexed Tibet by force
in 1958 while India did not even
protest. Had our political masters being correctly advised they would have
realised that Tibet was militarily very important to India because it formed a
buffer between mainland China and India. In 1958 then Prime Minister Nehru in principal agreed to
Tibet being part of China but did not officially endorse it. However this folly
was completed by the NDA Prime Minister AB Bajpai who officially conceded Tibet
being part of China. Having annexed Tibet China needed time to consolidate its
gains by settling main land Han Chinese in Tibet and building military
infrastructure in Tibet right up to Indo-China border. So China kept this
border dormant for almost four decades lulling Indians to go to sleep. While
India slept China has connected Tibet with the main land China by three
highways, rail line and what have u. It has built five all weather air bases in
Tibet. Chinese roads are leading right up to Indian border. Today China can
deploy 30 Army Divisions against
India at short notice. India woke up this Chinese threat a few years back and
is trying to build its own military infrastructure. However in absence of
military thought in Indian political masters and their aversion to take
strategic military advise from armed forces the urgency to make up for the time
lost is missing. China knows the bureaucratic way of functioning of India and
is now trying to exploit it by proposing new border defence pact which
basically requires both the armies to be away from borders and status quo to be
maintained. If India accepts this it will amount to India remaining weak on the
borders in perpetuity.
It is ok that Pakistani
economy is in doldrums and once friend and now turned rogue the jehadi terror
organisation Tehrik-e-Pakistan-Taliban is wrecking mayhem in Pakistan by almost
daily terror strikes but Pakistani Army remains confident that it will be able
to tame it in due course of time. As for economy Pakistan is not worried
because being the only Sunni Muslim country in the world with nuclear
capability it is in great demand in oil rich West Asian countries like Saudi
Arabia, more so after the declared intentions of Shia Iran of going nuclear. In
addition till now America has been sustaining it because it needed Pakistan to
supply its troops fighting in Afghanistan. Now after American withdrawal from
Afghanistan in 2014 China is there to keep Pakistan in good humour.
Biggest asset of Pakistan is
its formidable Jihad factory the world’s largest. Main players in it being
Lashkar-e-Toiba, Haqqani Network, Jaish Mohammad, Hijbul Mujahedeen and other
smaller groups. Afghan Taliban is also protected by Pakistan. Nobody has a
doubt that after withdrawal of America from Afghanistan in 2014 Pakistan through these proxies will gain control of
Afghanistan. Afghanistan will then house this Pakistani Jehad factory with
Taliban ruling it and Pakistan being their mentor. Truth of the matter is that
America included all the Western countries and the oil rich West Asian
countries will do their best to keep these jihad’s of this Jehad factory away
from their shores. For this they will not mind keeping Pakistan as their
custodian and paying Pakistan for its services. Pakistan also knows that these
jehadis who know nothing else but to do jehad cannot be kept idle lest they
turn on Pakistan itself. Needleless to say ideal target is India which Pakistan
will fully exploit without getting embroiled itself. Pakistan will always deny
that it has any role in terror and jehadi activity in India.
China also needs Pakistan
because its mineral rich Xinxiang Province having 10 million Muslim population is restive. China is also
involved in a big way in mining of rare materials from Afghanistan. With
Pakistan controlling Afghanistan, China will have no problem in continuing its
mining in Afghanistan. Two years back when Americans attacked one of the
Pakistani Army post on PAK-Afghan border which was facilitating these jehadis
to enter Afghanistan and killed 24 Pakistani soldiers, the US-PAK relations took a nose
dive. At this time Pakistan openly challenged America and shifted its loyalties
to China. Even though US-PAK relations have improved since then but the die has
been cast. Having defeated Russia in Afghanistan by American help now Pakistan
is about to defeat America by Chinese help. This has emboldened Pakistan to try
the same trick on India. India which has invested 2 billion dollars in Afghanistan for the development of
this strife torn country will be ousted from here by Pakistan. Thereafter these
jeahadis will descend on India. At the same time Pakistan will activate LOC in
Kashmir to once again mount pressure on India to solve the Kashmir problem the
Pakistani way. Meanwhile China will try to annex complete Ladakh from India
there by firmly adding Pakistan in its fold via Karakorum highway.
With China and Pakistan
having joined hands against India and the Pakistani Jehad factory ready to
descend on India, very major threat is on the horizon for the country. However
India political class and their Babu advisors are apparently in no hurry to
take any counter measures. First thing India needs to do is to go all out to
strengthen its armed forces to take on the joint might of China and Pakistan.
Currently Indian Army is having to make
do with obsolete artillery guns. Since 1986 Bofors scandal no guns have been bought. Indian Navy
which some time back boasted of 19 submarines and two aircraft carriers is down to just 8 obsolete submarines and only one aircraft carrier
which is so old that it is just a floating platform. Indian Air Force which had
37 plus squadrons some time
back is now forced to make do with just 33 squadrons for want of fighter aircrafts. This is just
two squadrons more than Pakistan.70 percent of
Indian Army tanks are night blind. Thanks to Mr. clean Defence minster
AK Antony and Congress led UPA Government rule of last ten years, we have never
been militarily so weak.
India must also nurture
friends like Japan, Vietnam, Philippines and all those countries who have
border disputes with China. India must also mend fences with Iran and Russia.
India along with Russia and Iran must once again reorganise Northern Alliance
in Northern Afghanistan composed of Hazara, uzbek and other tribes constituting
48 percent of Afghanistan
population. This will ensure Pakistan and Taliban embroiled in Afghanistan
itself with no time to create mischief in India. All political parties in India
must sit together and understand this dire threat looming on us. They must
collectively form a joint policy to deal with this combined threat from China
and Pakistan. Armed forces must be co-opted in these deliberations for our
political establishment to get correct strategic advice. Having formulated this
policy India then should firmly implement it. India must also strengthen
its external intelligence agency Raw on
the lines of CIA of America and Mossad of Israel. India must also light fires
within Pakistan as Pakistan is doing in India. The time is short and a lot has
to be done. We must understand that there are no short cuts available.
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