Africa as a whole is going to face two major problems in the 21st century: The first problem is how to feed the growing
population of the continent, the second is how to adapt to climate change.
Both problems are interlinked since climate change has the
potential for having severe implications on the food security in Africa. In the
following, the matter and extent of population growth in Africa and the
resulting implications will first be discussed. Then it will be assessed how
adequate food supply can be achieved. After that the major challenges to
ensuring sufficient food supply will be thoroughly addressed.
Population Growth and Food Demand
The population on the African continent is growing rapidly: For the
period from 2000 to 2050 eight of the
ten countries with the highest average annual growth rate in the world are African.
Until 2055, 18 out of the 20 countries with the highest total fertility are located in
Sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria as an example is projected to have the third
largest population growth in the world from 2000 to 2050. Already now Nigeria is in the top ten of the most populous
countries on the planet and expected to climb in the top five in the course of
this century. All these are indicators for the enormous ongoing population
growth in Africa and they point to the most important fact: The population on
the African continent is expected to double from around one billion to almost
two billion over the next 40 years (United Nations, 2004).
Larger populations cause higher food demand on the African
continent. The nations in Africa will act to ensure that this higher food
demand is met by sufficient food supply. But as elaborated subsequently, the
big challenge of the 21st century for the growing number
of people in Africa will be to find means to meet their food demand.
Food Supply and the Challenges
Currently Africa ensures food supply by a mix of domestic food
production and overseas food imports. West Africa for example depends to 40% on imports in ensuring sufficient rice supply with Thailand
as the main rice supplier (FAO, 2010). The total volume of
cereal imports in Africa was around 66 million tons in 2010 (FAO, 2013a). This means that for the
whole of Africa 30% of all cereals consumed were imported.
(Cereals exports are negligible: Even if all exports were instead to be used
for domestic consumption, 28% of cereals consumed would
still be constituted of imports. (FAO, 2013b)) One of the
five largest trade flows of wheat in the world is from the US to Nigeria (FAO, 2013a). Despite domestic production and import efforts there
were 239 million undernourished people living on the
African continent in 2012, most of them in Sub-Saharan
Africa. During the last two decades the number of undernourished people in
Africa has increased by more than 35% (FAO, 2012).
This shows that food insecurity already now is of increasingly relevant
concern. In meeting the rising food demand caused by the growth in population
in Africa, there are three options of how this rising demand can theoretically
be covered by sufficient food supply: raise overseas food imports, raise domestic
food production, or increase both food production and food imports.
Ensuring Food Supply through Increased Food Imports
There are several reasons leading to the conclusion that ensuring
food supply through increased overseas food imports will not be an option which
could satisfy the increasing demand for food:
The current world population could so far be sustained through the
benefits of modern agriculture, which promotes the use of irrigation systems,
chemical fertilizer, farm machinery, and large-scale monoculture farms for
increased efficiency and yields. It is now becoming increasingly understood
that this system of modern agriculture is unsustainable at the current scale
and potentially cannot even be sustained throughout this century (Cordell, et
al., 2009; UNEP, 2011; Gleick &
Palaniappan, 2010). The main reason for this is that
modern agriculture depends heavily on water, fossil fuels (for irrigation,
fertilizer production, machinery, transportation) and phosphate rock (for
phosphorus fertilizer). Both fossil fuels and phosphate rock are finite
resources and are becoming increasingly scarce. There are estimates that
phosphate rock production will peak in the course of this century and
thereafter continuously decline, thereby creating a supply-demand gap (Cordell,
et al., 2010). Even the global oil company BP states that
there are only 54.2 years of known crude oil reserves left
and this only when assuming no growth in consumption (BP, 2012). There
are other forms of unconventional oil such as tar sands but those deliver a
much less favorable energy return on energy invested (EROEI) and therefore bear
a much higher price making modern agriculture less affordable and food products
more expensive. Additionally also these unconventional fuels will eventually
diminish. Phosphorus on the other hand does not have any substitutes: Once the
world’s economically retrievable phosphate rock is completely mined there will
be no alternative convenient way of obtaining phosphorus easily for the
production of phosphorus fertilizer which is indispensable for efficient plant growth.
While the dates stated of the end of economically producible fossil fuel and
phosphate rock are issues with large vested interests and therefore
significantly varying prognoses, it can definitely be expected that fertilizer
and oil will become increasingly expensive leading to large increases in food
prices making food imports much more costly. A recent example of that problem
of agricultural dependence on external inputs was the 2008
global rice crisis which was partly caused by the rise in fuel prices (Slayton,
2009).The same crisis also caused a 700%
price increase in phosphate rock (Cordell, et al., 2009).
Finally and probably most importantly there is an increasing lack
of water available for agricultural purpose for which no substitutes exist. Generally
speaking water is a renewable resource and therefore does not get depleted the
same way that fossil fuels get depleted. However there is a maximum of water
available at a certain period of time (e.g. through rainfall). If population
growth trends continue, the available renewable water during a certain period
of time will not be sufficient to meet the agricultural water requirements in
that time frame anymore. P. Gleick et al. (2010) suggest
for instance that the U.S. already consumes more water than is renewably
available by tapping into non-renewable groundwater aquifers. The Colorado
River in the U.S., the Huang He in China, or the Nile in Northern Africa often
do not reach the sea anymore with river flows falling to zero due to extensive
water withdrawals for agricultural use (Gleick & Palaniappan, 2010). The Chairman of Nestlé Mr. Brabeck-Letmathe himself said:
“I am convinced that, under present conditions and considering the way water is
being currently managed, we will run out of water long before we run out of
fuel” (Agence France-Presse, 2009). Climate change is
additionally expected to aggravate water scarcity by causing salination of
coastal freshwater sources and through a general decline in water quality due
to higher average temperatures (IPCC, 2007). These are all
signs which strongly indicate that water is becoming a more limited resource.
With water, fossil fuels, and phosphate rock becoming increasingly scarce,
efficient food production will be challenged, yields might decrease and food
prices increase.
Population growth is occurring all over the world. The estimated
world population is expected to reach 8.9 billion by 2050 having increased by almost 50% since 2000 (United Nations, 2004). In this
context Africa will contribute only around 20% to the
total world population. Other nations will have to increasingly make efforts to
meet their own domestic demand due to higher population numbers and more
challenged modern agriculture systems and therefore have less to spare for
exports. The USA – currently the world’s largest exporter of agricultural
products– has by some scientists been predicted to cease to be a food exporter
and use all of its production for domestic consumption by 2025
given population growth, food consumption, and topsoil loss trends (Pimentel
& Giampietro, 1994). Another example, Japan, which has
high food import dependence, is aware of the risk of food insecurity and has
put increasing food self-sufficiency on the national agenda (OECD, 2013). With nations increasingly focusing on ensuring the food
security of their own people there would be fewer opportunities for profitable
imports of food products.
Based on this analysis of global population growth paired with
diminishing available water, fossil fuels, and phosphate rock for practicing
efficient, modern agriculture it should be concluded that food imports will not
be the means of how Africa can effectively meet the growing food demand in the
long run. Therefore the other proposal to meet increasing food demand – domestic
production – should be examined more closely.
Ensuring Food Supply through Increased Domestic Production
Looking at the current conditions there are several challenges to
ensure sufficient food supply through domestic production. The primary
condition for successfully growing any crop is having soil with appropriate
properties. However many African soils are of low quality. A study by the US
Department of Agriculture points out: “Fifty five percent of the land in Africa
is unsuitable for any kind of agriculture except nomadic grazing.” (Eswaran, et
al., 1997) Many soils provide poor amounts of organic
matter and have a low soil quality and fertility. As stated in the most recent
Climate Change 2007 Report by the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC): “A number of countries in Africa already face
semi-arid conditions that make agriculture challenging”. In Sub-Saharan Africa
almost 75% of agricultural soils are nutrient deficient
(Cordell, et al., 2009). Current deforestation trends
exacerbate the issue of low soil quality: When the protective tree canopy is
lost soils become more prone to wind and water erosion which further degrades
the soil. Soil erosion in Africa is estimated to cause a loss of 1kg
of phosphorus per hectare per year (UNEP, 2011). Ongoing
desertification trends also reduce available soil for crop production.
The analysis of the current situation of African soils and crop
growing conditions can generally been seen as unfavorable. But looking forward
into the century climate change also has to be taken increasingly into
consideration as a determining factor. Climate change is having and will
increasingly have more severe implications on food security in Africa. As
stated by the IPCC: “Agricultural production and food security (including
access to food) in many African countries and regions are likely to be severely
compromised by climate change and climate variability” (IPCC, 2007).
Climate change, which is caused by carbon emissions into the atmosphere,
results in an average increase in global temperatures. This temperature
increase has several severe implications: Crop productivity is projected to
decrease at lower latitudes, especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions,
even for low local temperature increases between 1-2°C. According
to the IPCC report the reductions in yields could be as much as 50%
by 2020. Wheat production for instance is expected to
disappear from Africa by the 2080s. In Africa climate
change is also expected to decrease the areas suitable for agriculture and the
length of the growing season, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas (IPCC, 2007).
A recent analysis by M. Fader et al. (2013) points
out that most African countries will need an increase in agricultural
efficiency and/or an expansion of agricultural land use in order to satisfy the
growing consumption needs even under conservative population growth scenarios
(Fader, et al., 2013). Climate change however causes lower
crop productivity and therefore reduced agricultural efficiency and also has
the effect of a reduction in the land suitable for production. Extraordinary
agricultural efficiency improvements will therefore be necessary in Africa to
offset the negative effects of climate change while still increasing
agricultural productivity. Even without accounting for climate change as a
determining factor M. Fader et al. (2013) conclude:
“Assuming that the economies of LIE countries (low-income economies, most of
them are situated in Africa) will not develop fast and strong enough in the
next 40 years and, thus, that they will not have the financial means for improving agricultural productivity, expanding
cropland or importing agricultural goods, in 2050 there
would be a food security gap in those countries equivalent to 0.9–1.3 billion people”. It should also be pointed out that there
will be some countries in Africa like Niger and Somalia which due to their
environmental constraints do not have the option to increase domestic
production to satisfy food consumption needs but will – provided current population
growth trends continue – inevitably be dependent on additional food imports
(Fader, et al., 2013).
From this analysis it can be concluded that Africa will be severely
challenged in achieving food security through increased domestic production and
in some cases even will not be able to achieve this goal: Soil properties in
many areas in Africa already disfavor agriculture. As climate change decreases
the areas suitable for production and in many cases impairs agricultural
efficiency, special emphasis has to be placed on efficiency improvement
measures. It is of high importance to create awareness of the challenges ahead
for food production in Africa, especially the impacts of climate change, so
that adaptive actions can be taken in a timely manner.
Conclusion
The African population is expected to double from one to two
billion people in the course of the next 40 years. This
population growth requires a significant increase in food supply. Already now
there are an increasing number of malnourished people that indicate the
increasing importance of ensuring food security. Africa as a continent is
currently partially dependent on food imports yet a sufficient increase in food
imports is unlikely to occur. This is due to globally occurring population
growth and due to increasingly challenged modern agricultural systems with
their high dependence on non-renewable resources: The rising global population
will cause national governments to decrease food exports in order to meet
national food demand. Declining non-renewable resources on which the
agricultural sector is depended will cause an increase in food prices and a
decrease in yields, both contributing to impaired global food production and
reduced opportunities for food imports to Africa. Instead of increasing the
dependence on food imports, which would pose an increasingly large risk in the
future as the 2008 rice crisis has already indicated, the
African nations should focus on increasing domestic production sufficiently.
This goal will however also be severely challenged due to the less favorable
growing conditions in many African regions and will be further impaired by the
ongoing climate change. How should the African nations respond to these
challenges? Highest immediate priority should be given to developmental efforts
that increase agricultural efficiency such as the widespread implementation of
drip irrigation schemes to offset the negative effects of climate change while
still increasing production. Awareness has to be created about the effects of climate
change on food security and appropriate adaptive capacity should be created.
Changes in diet and a lower dependence on meat based food might have to be
promoted. Finally, a solution to the ongoing unsustainable population growth
needs to be found.
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