P Arjun Subramanian
MA Scholar, Dept of East
Asian Studies, University of Delhi
The successful underwater
test firing of the K-15 Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) 28 January
2013 by the DRDO is a remarkable achievement, considering that only five
countries possess this capability. The missile incorporates advanced
technologies, which make it a reliable nuclear delivery system. The missile is
to be integrated with the Indian SSBN INS Arihant, which can reportedly carry
twelve such missiles.
Technical Analysis
The missile is reported to
have attained an apogee of around 40 to 50 km, which is extremely depressed.
This indicates two aspects. Firstly, the actual range of the missile is much
more than the declared one. The range could be further increased by payload
(one metric ton) trade-off. Secondly, this missile has a high probability of
penetrating any missile defence system as it has some vital combinations: speed
and a low trajectory. The low trajectory helps to avoid early radar detection
and also may confuse the missile defence fire control algorithm from
identifying it as a threat, while the hypersonic velocity reduces the reaction
time of the defence systems.
The missile is reported to
have achieved very high accuracy despite being launched in a relatively
depressed trajectory. The underwater test launches conducted so far were done
from a submerged pontoon at a depth of 50m simulating a submarine launch, which
is similar to a launch from a pre-surveyed launch site on land. The
geographical data fed to the Inertial Navigation System (INS) will be very
precise, the only difference being that the missile had to take into count the
hydrodynamics involved until it surfaces. The same missile, when launched from
a SSBN on patrol, does not enjoy this advantage. Any navigational error in the
SSBN navigation system will be transferred to the missiles’ onboard guidance
system. This error is bound to compound as the missile travels over long
distance, degrading its Circular Error Probable (CEP). This acquired error can
be reduced to some extent, if in future, a GPS aided INS is used. A point to be
noted here is that an error of few tens of meters does not matter much if the
payload is a nuclear warhead.
Deterrence Value
The missile is reported to
have a range of 700 km when launched in the conditions under which it has been
tested so far. This limited range becomes a serious constraint. For example,
this missile cannot reach Islamabad or Lahore even when the boat positions
itself close to the Pakistani shore. The only major city that the boat can
threaten from a safe distance is the port city of Karachi.
For strikes against China,
the boat has to position itself inside the first island chain to get within
striking distance of Shanghai. Worse, to reach within striking distance of
Beijing, it has to operate in the Yellow Sea or Bohai Sea, which is close to
one of the Peoples Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) bases, which is also a base
for its submarine fleet. This will be a highly risky endeavour. Hence, as a sea
based deterrent, this missile has relatively very limited value. The DRDO is
also developing the K-4 SLBM that reportedly will have a maximum range of
3500km, which when deployed, will enable the submarine to operate from a longer
distance to be within striking distance of the target and complete the triad in
the real sense. India needs three SSBN platforms to maintain 24x7 presence of
at least one submarine in the waters around China.
How does the ‘Sea based
deterrence’ affect Pakistan’s nuclear equation?
Pakistan, for the past few
years, has been increasing its nuclear arsenal with a focus on tactical nuclear
weapons with an aim to deter any major Indian conventional offensive action.
But the concept of tactical nuclear strike makes little sense because India
would consider it a first strike even if it is used against Indian forces
inside Pakistani territory. Hence, any Pakistani first strike ought to focus on
Indian nuclear forces in an attempt to cripple India’s retaliatory capability.
With the induction of sea based deterrence, this option for Pakistan could be
seriously weakened. This development is bound to upset Pakistani nuclear strike
calculations, and might force Pakistan to improve its Anti Submarine Warfare
(ASW) capability.
The crucial point is whether
India’s push towards deploying sea based deterrence will compel Pakistan to
further increase its nuclear arsenal. Any increase in the nuclear arsenal
beyond what Pakistan considers as required for minimum deterrence does not seem
to serve any useful purpose, and this minimum deterrence estimation would have
included the possibility of an Indian first strike. An increase would in no way
be a counter to an Indian sea-based deterrent force. Besides, it will put an
unnecessary burden on Pakistan’s already strained economy.
Conclusion
The K-15 is a good weapon in
terms of technological sophistication. However, the missile’s range appears to
be its only drawback even when launched in the minimum energy trajectory, where
the range could be little above 1000 km. To have effective sea-based
deterrence, the range of the delivery vehicle should at least be above 2000 km.
Nevertheless, it is a good start and once effective sea based deterrence is in
place, it certainly would tilt the balance in favour of India, at least within
the subcontinent.
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